Resolution
Extensive ignorance of foreign policy contexts and of the rules of democratic decision-making in the governments of his Western opponents led Hitler to arrive at an incorrect foreign policy assessment of the situation. In his view, the coalition of his Western opponents, especially that of the USA on the one hand and Great Britain with Canada, Australia and New Zealand on the other, was on the verge of collapse. By misjudging numerous foreign policy indicators and combining them into an overall assessment determined by illusions or wishful thinking, he came to the conclusion that all that was needed was a sensitive blow to the Western Allies that would bring about the collapse of the anti-Hitler coalition. The Anglo-Americans would retreat to their homelands and the German Reich would be in a position to successfully conclude the defensive struggle in the East against the threat of Bolshevization in Europe.
In Hitler's view, such a shaking of the political balance of the Western powers could only consist in an outstanding military success, in a surprising, shattering major offensive on the Western Front. The last reserves of the Wehrmacht and the people had to be mobilized for this, everything had to be put on one card, the possible downfall of the Reich had to be accepted. The basic idea of the Ardennes offensive was thus born in Hitler's mind. All available files indicate that it was he alone who came up with the idea, in his characteristic nihilistic attitude, of daring to play Vabanques and attempting to bring about a "turning point" in the war, which had long since been lost militarily, with a final and ruthless effort. A final military victory was no longer to be hoped for even on Hitler's part at this point. Rather, in Hitler's thinking, which was characterized by illusionary misjudgment and megalomania, the "shock" of a successful German offensive was still intended to create the basis for the Western public's acceptance of a political end to the war. As a last resort, the Social Darwinist Hitler had decided anyway that the German people would perish if they were not able to crown their plans with success.
"In no other operation of the war was Hitler's irrational wishful thinking more evident; never was the gap between delusion and reality greater. He swept aside all counterarguments of his military advisers, all calculations of the logisticians. He believed only in the 'power of the will'."
- Karl-Heinz Frieser: The German Blitzkriege. Operational Triumph - Strategic Tragedy
However, there were also - at least from Hitler's point of view - rational reasons to dare a last attempt in the West. In the east, there had been no decisive victory since 1941, despite seemingly more favorable conditions, and since the failure of Unternehmen Zitadelle in 1943, the initiative had been on the side of the Red Army. In the west, where the Wehrmacht had won within weeks in 1940, the distances were shorter and the traffic conditions more favorable. Moreover, Hitler now considered the fighting morale of the Western Allies to be lower than that of the Russians. If at all, he felt that only here was there still a chance to turn the war around. For Hitler, doing nothing was tantamount to surrender. And so even the last human forces were to be deployed.
Planning
"Behind this gigantic deployment plan was a single man: Adolf Hitler."
Hitler developed his reclamation of the 'law of action', which alone guaranteed him success, on the day the 3rd U.S. Army broke up the German front around the Normandy bridgehead, July 31, 1944, in a situation meeting with Generaloberst Jodl, the Chief of the Wehrmacht Leadership Staff in the OKW (High Command of the Wehrmacht) and his deputy, General Warlimont. Due to the 'followership problem', which Hitler felt not only since the assassination attempt of July 20, 1944 and in view of the currently catastrophic situation in the West and likewise on the Eastern Front, he had to develop his personal plans cautiously even in the closest circle and first convince Jodl of the necessity of offensive ideas again in the medium term. The "blindness" that Hitler is often accused of towards the 'facts' is relativized in the documents - for example, as early as July 13, 1944, when Caen was lost in the bridgehead, a "decree of the Führer on command in an operational area within the Reich" is documented, which gives detailed instructions for a restructuring of command divisions, relations between the party and the Wehrmacht, and logistical issues "in the event of an advance of enemy forces into German Reich territory."
Military command on the ground sounded different, often tactically senseless, to the ears of those concerned not only in the summer of 1944, but for Hitler there was no 'humanistic consideration' even towards his own troops - he consistently pursued strategic intentions. This is reflected in the above-mentioned situation briefing of July 31, in which he persuaded Jodl and Warlimont to adopt his views: thus Hitler interpreted the "narrowing of space" as an opportunity, for one could now "seal off Germany with a minimum of forces." Hitler certainly saw the limitation of forces, the acutely low mobility of the units, the lack of air superiority, the losses in the east, the existential problems of the previous allies with a consequence "possibly even the surrender of the entire Balkans". He calculated the retreat to the Western Wall. He foresaw Montgomery's strategy of breaking into Germany in the north. Conclusion: "These are such far-reaching thoughts that, if I were to communicate them to an army group today, they would cause horror, and I therefore believe it is necessary that a very small staff of us be deployed here." Thus is conceived the utmost secrecy of future planning. At present, he said, the enemy's supplies must be blocked and his "operations in the depths of space" made difficult by holding ports as long as possible and by logistical destruction. Hitler orders the securing of a headquarters in the west and prepares his interlocutors for reorganizations of military organization and command, familiarizing them with the idea of "assembling a staff with a few heads as intelligent as they are imaginative."
During the collapse of the defensive front in Normandy, Hitler, without prior notice, replaced Commander-in-Chief West and Commander of Army Group B, Generalfeldmarschall Günther von Kluge with Generalfeldmarschall Walter Model in both capacities on August 17, 1944.
On August 24, 1944, immediately before the liberation of Paris by the Western Allies, the "Order on the Expansion of the German Western Position" only deals with the West Wall (including parts of the Maginot Line) and the "Moselle Line" as a "continuous tank obstacle. The Somme-Marne Line, which was still discussed several times in the daily orders, plays no role in the planning. On September 1, 1944, detailed instructions follow for the "establishment of defensive readiness" of the West Wall and the Weststellung. Weisungen für die Kampfführung im Westen (Instructions for Combat Command in the West), issued from September 3 to 9, permit comparatively flexible combat command with the aim of "gaining time for the formation and bringing up of new formations and for the expansion of the Weststellung" and prepare offensive operations in the south of the Western Front. Hitler had thus renewed the organizational structures in the rear - also regulating the command relationship between the Wehrmacht and the party in order to optimize logistical preparations.
By mid-September 1944, "within three weeks of the fall of Paris and the crushing defeat of the German Army in the Battle of France, the Wehrmacht had almost restored its equilibrium; in any case, it was no longer 'running'" and "on September 16, after his daily briefing in the 'Wolf's Lair,' the Fuehrer asked those generals in whom he had the most confidence to hold a second briefing in another room." Present, in addition to Keitel and Jodl, were Heinz Guderian, Chief of the Army General Staff, and General Kreipe, representing Goering. Hitler opened to the group his plan for an offensive in the Ardennes: "across the Meuse and on to Antwerp."
"The next day, September 17, 1944, Hitler ordered accelerated preparations for the counteroffensive. He issued orders for the reorganization of the 6th Panzer Army and, to this end, brought in a new man who would later play an important role - General Rudolf Gercke, Chief of Wehrmacht Transportation."
On September 25, 1944 - the British retreated again after their defeat at Arnhem (Hitler had been waiting to see the outcome of the battle) - Hitler "ordered Colonel General Jodl to prepare a comprehensive plan for the offensive." Keitel was put in charge of logistics. "By the beginning of October, Gercke had almost finished building up the transport system. [...] Gercke's most important task, however, was the overhaul of the German Reichsbahn."
The situation in the West had changed in the fall: "The defensive victories won by the Germans at Arnhem, Aachen, and Antwerp extended the war into the spring of 1945. These German successes thwarted Eisenhower's strategic plans and gave the Wehrmacht and the German people a new will to resist. [...] On October 8 [after Toland on October 11], Jodl submitted a draft of an offensive to be carried out in late November through the Ardennes with Antwerp as the objective." Called "Christrose" for the time being, the enterprise "was based on two premises: complete surprise of the enemy and a weather situation that made the use of Allied aircraft impossible." The utmost secrecy was ordered.
"On the morning of October 12, Jodl presented Hitler with the elaborated plan." The new code name was now "Wacht am Rhein." With his appointment as colonel, Skorzeny received special orders "behind the American lines." The next morning, October 13, von Rundstedt and Model received copies of the plan. Immediately, both drafted 'counterplans'. "On October 27, the Führer met with Rundtstedt and Model." Model tried to force a "small solution" ("Herbstnebel") that seemed more appropriate to the forces, but "Hitler made the decision - against the votes of his generals. On December 7, he approved the final draft. [...] The enterprise 'Watch on the Rhine' on the Rhine started."
"At a final meeting in Berlin on December 2, in which v. Rundstedt declined to participate," [...] Hitler conceded to Model, "one could, should the main operation fail, switch to the 'small solution' at any time. [...] On December 12, four days before the start of the offensive, all Higher Leaders were summoned to Rundstedt's headquarters. [...] Hitler spoke for two hours, and for two hours the generals sat stiffly, each with an armed SS man behind his chair, looking so grim that Bayerlein 'dared not even reach for his handkerchief.'"
Hitler's political calculation was "that he might now obtain a compromise peace if he could deal a crippling blow to one or other of his opponents." Against the Red Army, this did not seem feasible to him in terms of strength and in consequence of the 'depth of space', the most likely "law of action could be regained in the West. [...] Once Antwerp was taken, the Allies had lost the only major port (intact) [...] and the Allied armies north of the Ardennes were trapped, with their backs to the sea and without a sufficient port of embarkation. [...] Under such a defeat, Hitler believed, the coalition would break up."
"None of the generals who had to endure the torrent of words believed that Antwerp could be taken, if only because of the lack of fuel. Hitler had promised overabundant supplies, but what they had been allotted was barely enough to get them to the Meuse. They relied on getting their hands on American camps, but because of the ban on aerial reconnaissance, they did not know where any were. Nevertheless, they believed that they could reach the Meuse and inflict a heavy defeat on the Americans, provided that the buildup of forces remained unnoticed to the last."
- Chester Wilmot: The Battle for Europe, p. 554 f.
The memory of the success of the Sickle Cut Plan in May 1940 also played a role in the choice of the center of attack between Monschau and Echternach.
Hitler wanted to use a period of bad weather to offset enemy air superiority.
This weather situation then developed in mid-December. At that time, there was only a thin layer of snow in the western German low mountain ranges, and no snow at all in the lowlands. In the course of 16 December, the flow turned to west/southwest and mild air masses with rain, thaw and poor visibility spread to the Ardennes area, so that ground units would be able to operate largely unmolested by air attacks.
Two commando operations were planned to support the offensive:
- Unternehmen Greif was the code name for a detachment of German soldiers under the command of Otto Skorzeny. The English-speaking soldiers were to camouflage themselves with U.S. Army uniforms and wore the identification tags of fallen or captured U.S. soldiers. The soldiers were grouped into four infantry, three tank, two supply, and four tank destroyer companies, which were to be equipped with tanks and weapons from Allied loot. But there was a serious shortage of heavy weapons equipment. Of the 25 Sherman tanks promised, the troops received only two. The task of the soldiers of the "Griffin Command" was mainly to create confusion behind enemy lines; they were also to occupy several bridges over the Meuse between Namur and Liège.
- Unternehmen Stößer was an airborne landing operation in which paratroopers led by Friedrich August von der Heydte were to drop 11 kilometers north of Malmedy on the night of December 16-17 and block an important American supply route.
Involved forces
Three armies of Army Group B under Field Marshal Walter Model - from north to south, the 6th Panzer Army, the 5th Panzer Army, and the 7th Army - had lined up for the "decisive battle." Including the reserves of Army Group B, over 41 divisions with about a quarter of a million soldiers were ready to attack. They were concentrated on a 100-kilometer stretch between Monschau and Echternach. Model had his headquarters during the Battle of the Bulge at the former OKH headquarters (part of the Führer's 1940 Felsennest headquarters) at Hülloch near Bad Münstereifel. Hitler moved into the Führer's Adlerhorst headquarters near Bad Nauheim shortly before the offensive began.
Similar to 1940, German armored units were to make their way through the rough terrain of the Ardennes or the western parts of the Eifel and repel the Allies. The newly formed 6th Panzer Army, which included the four SS Panzer Divisions "Leibstandarte SS Adolf Hitler", "Das Reich", "Hohenstaufen" and "Hitlerjugend", was located in the staging area of the Losheimergraben area southwest of Cologne-Bonn. It had to carry out the main attack on the northern flank by the shortest route to Antwerp. In the daily order of December 15, 1944, the commander-in-chief of the 6th Panzer Army, Sepp Dietrich, demanded the highest commitment to the last man from all Waffen SS, Army and Air Force units under his command.
American situation
In all, there were only four U.S. divisions of the 1st U.S. Army on the front section in question. The American side generally estimated the offensive capability of the Germans at this point to be only slight, and an offensive in the Ardennes was least expected. Moreover, after the failed Operation Market Garden in September 1944, the Allies were busy with their own offensive preparations north and south of the Ardennes. The British, thanks to Alan Turing at Bletchley Park, were able to decode German radio traffic. However, the most important orders on the German side were transmitted by Kradmelder - not by radio as before. The Allied military intelligence services did not succeed in deriving an "overall picture" and drawing the right conclusions from the individual building blocks that did exist and that pointed to a planned large-scale German enterprise (reports of troop deployments, individual statements by higher-ranking POWs, intercepted radio transmissions, etc.).