Bosnian War (1992–1995): conflict, consequences and legacy

The dissolution of Yugoslavia in 1990/1991 was preceded by long-term processes of domestic political and socio-economic disintegration. They were structurally inherent in the state structure and became more acute and dynamic as a result of the global political changes of the 1980s. One source of conflict was the tense relationship between nationalism and federalism; in addition, there was ethnic diversity, divergent historical-political traditions and serious socio-economic differences between the constituent republics. Thus conflicts over distribution and nationalist undercurrents were pre-programmed, which under Tito's leadership and in an elaborate model of ethnic representation and power-sharing could still be controlled with difficulty. With the collapse of communism in Eastern Europe, supporting pillars of the Yugoslav concept of the state collapsed; the Yugoslav model of the "Third Way" between the blocs, which had been internationally respected until then, became obsolete. A severe economic crisis had burdened Yugoslavia since the early 1980s. Calls for far-reaching reforms of the political system grew louder, especially in Slovenia and Croatia. Over the dispute over reforms, the Yugoslav government became incapable of acting at the end of the decade; more and more power was shifted to the level of the constituent republics. The anti-bureaucratic revolution in 1989 accelerated Yugoslavia's process of disintegration, and in early 1990 the League of Communists of Yugoslavia, the Yugoslav Unity Party, disintegrated. Multi-party elections were called in Slovenia, Croatia and Bosnia-Herzegovina, and later in the other republics, but not at the federal level.

In the process, new political parties were established that saw themselves as representing the interests of mostly a single ethnic group. Competition for political power was thus transformed into ethno-political rivalry. On 25 June 1991, after previous referendums, Slovenia and Croatia declared themselves independent. Immediately afterwards, the first armed conflicts broke out between the territorial defence forces there and the Yugoslav People's Army, which remained the only federal institution in 1991. The war gradually spread to other republics.

Population structure

Before the Bosnian War, Bosnia and Herzegovina was often regarded as Yugoslavia in miniature because of its population structure. Three peoples lived peacefully together for a long time: the Muslim Bosniaks, the Orthodox Serbs and the Catholic Croats, with religion playing only a minor role in socialist Yugoslavia. In many parts of the country, these populations were direct neighbors. According to the 1991 census, of a total population of 4.36 million, Bosniaks accounted for 43.7 percent, Serbs for 31.4 percent, and Croats for 17.3 percent; 5.5 percent declared themselves Yugoslavs. In addition, about 2 per cent belonged to other minorities.

Parliamentary elections

The communist regime in Bosnia and Herzegovina was considered comparatively repressive. The reason often given was that relations between the nations here were so sensitive that any disturbance would immediately escalate. The process of political democratization got off to a relatively late start in Bosnia. Although a new constitution and multi-party system were adopted in January 1990, the formation of parties under national names was banned in April. This led to the Bosniak party having to call itself the Party of Democratic Action. The ban was later lifted. The first free elections for the bicameral parliament were held on 18 November and 2 December 1990.

Three nationally defined parties received the most votes, roughly in line with population shares: the Bosniak Democratic Action Party (SDA) won 86 of the 240 seats in both houses of parliament, the Serb Democratic Party (SDS) 70 seats, and the Croat Democratic Union in Bosnia and Herzegovina (HDZ BiH) 45 seats. Fikret Abdić (SDA) was elected president, but resigned in favor of Alija Izetbegović. Izetbegović could have governed with a coalition of Bosniaks and Croats, but formed a formal coalition between the three largest parties. The Serb Momčilo Krajišnik became speaker of parliament and the Croat Jure Pelivan became prime minister.

Formation of autonomous territories

When the government took office at the end of 1990, the general situation in Yugoslavia was already very tense. Slobodan Milošević publicly threatened in early 1991 that he would annex entire territories of Croatia and Bosnia if anyone attempted to replace Yugoslavia's federal structure with a looser alliance structure. In debates over the federal structure, the Bosnian government sided with Slovenia and Croatia but could not support them absolutely because many Bosnians were alarmed by the prospect of the two republics leaving Yugoslavia. In May 1991, the Bosnian SDS began to call for the secession of large parts of northern and western Bosnia. They were to be united with Croatian Krajina to form a new republic. Three areas of Bosnia with predominantly Serb inhabitants were declared Serbian Autonomous Regions by the SDS. A little later, a smaller party in Croatia, the Party of Law, called for the annexation of all of Bosnia by Croatia. Meanwhile, open war had broken out in the summer of 1991, first in Slovenia, then in Croatia. In early August 1991, the leader of the small Bosniak party Muslimanska bošnjačka organizacija (MBO), Adil Zulfikarpašić, made an attempt to reach a historic agreement with the SDS that would guarantee the integrity of the Bosnian Republic. Izetbegović protested against this on the grounds that the Croats had not even been consulted. A few days after his criticism, the SDS representatives declared that they would now boycott the meetings of the State Presidency.

The next step taken by the SDS leadership was the involvement of the Yugoslav Federal Army in September 1991 to protect the Serbian autonomous regions. Federal troops were deployed to Herzegovina and established the borders of the Serbian Autonomous Region of Herzegovina in late September. Other army bases on Bosnian territory (including in Banja Luka) were used for military action against Croatia. Important communication centres were occupied by the army. During the winter of 1991/92, heavy artillery positions were built around major Bosnian cities. When the fighting in Croatia ended in January/February 1992, tanks and artillery of the Federal Army were withdrawn from Croatia with the approval of the UN and transferred to Bosnia.

The political plan behind it had been presented at the Party Congress of the Socialist Party of Serbia on 9 October 1991: "In the new Yugoslav state there will be at least three federal entities: Serbia, Montenegro and a united Bosnia-Knin. If the Bosniaks wish to remain in the new Yugoslav state, they can do so. If they try to secede, they must know that they are surrounded on all sides by Serbian territory."

The Bosnian parliament debated whether Bosnia should declare its sovereignty. In a memorandum in October 1991, the parliament demanded legislative sovereignty within Yugoslavia, so that it could theoretically pass laws that could break the right of the federal army to use its territory. Before this decision was taken, Radovan Karadžić ordered the SDS deputies to leave the parliament. A few days later, he and his party established a so-called Serbian National Assembly in Banja Luka, the stronghold of the Federal Army.

The attitude of Croatia and the Bosnian Croats towards a possible independent Bosnia-Herzegovina was mixed: the Bosnian Croats in central and north-eastern Bosnia had an interest in a stable Bosnia-Herzegovina. Many Croats in Herzegovina, on the other hand, would have liked to join the newly independent Croatia. Croatian President Franjo Tuđman at times seemed willing to give a guarantee of respect for an independent Bosnian state. However, there were also contrary statements from his side. At a meeting with Milošević in Karađorđevo in March 1991, both had discussed ways of dividing Yugoslavia, and the division of Bosnia and Herzegovina had played a role. Tuđman's opinion that Bosnia-Herzegovina had been created "by the Ottoman occupation of the former Croatian territories", that all Bosniaks "feel like Croats after all" and that the Croatian state should be restored "within its historical borders" was also well known.

Referendum

After an overwhelming majority of the population in both Slovenia and Croatia had spoken out in favour of their state independence and the governments had declared their sovereignty, a referendum on state independence was also prepared in Bosnia-Herzegovina in 1991.

The referendum was held on 29 February and 1 March 1992. Bosnian Serbs were called upon by their political leadership to boycott this referendum. The turnout was 63.4 per cent. Of the valid votes, 99.7 per cent were in favour of sovereignty under international law.

In the Bosnian-Herzegovinian parliament, which most Serb deputies had already left at the end of 1991, the declaration of independence was proclaimed on 5 March 1992. The first state to recognize Bosnia and Herzegovina's independence under international law was Bulgaria.